A Large Norwegian Study Finds No Link Between the Rotavirus Vaccine and Celiac Disease

A study of more than 740,000 Norwegian children, published in the Journal of Pediatrics, found no link between the infant rotavirus vaccine and celiac disease diagnosed before age 5. Children born after the vaccine was added to Norway’s national schedule were no more likely to develop early celiac disease than children born before it, and fully vaccinated children were no more likely than unvaccinated children.

Celiac disease is an immune reaction to gluten, the protein in wheat, barley, and rye. Genes play a big role in who gets it, but genes alone can't explain why diagnoses have been rising. In one part of Norway, celiac diagnoses in children under 15 climbed from about 16 per 100,000 to 46 per 100,000 between 2002 and 2010. That kind of jump points to something in early childhood — infections or diet — adding to the genetic risk.

Rotavirus is a common cause of severe diarrhea in young children. An earlier U.S. study had linked natural rotavirus infection to a higher chance of developing celiac disease, and researchers have proposed that a piece of the virus can resemble the body's own tissue and confuse the immune system. That raised a reasonable question: if catching the virus might contribute to celiac disease, does the vaccine change the risk one way or the other? Earlier studies had pointed in different directions and left the question open.

Norway offered the rotavirus vaccine to all infants born on or after September 1, 2014. That nationwide switch created a natural comparison: children born just before the change versus children born just after.

The team followed every child born in Norway from 2007 through 2019 — 740,744 children in all — using national health registries that record nearly everyone. They counted celiac diagnoses (confirmed by a specialist) up to age 5. Across the full group, 8,334 children were diagnosed with celiac disease at some point, and 2,795 of those diagnoses came before age 5.

They compared the groups in two ways: children born before versus after the vaccine was introduced, and — using the immunization registry — fully vaccinated versus unvaccinated children.

The rate of early celiac disease did not shift after the vaccine was introduced. A statistical test for a change in the trend found none.

Put another way, the risk of celiac disease was essentially the same whether or not a child had been vaccinated:

• Children born after the vaccine started had about the same risk as those born before (hazard ratio 0.96; the range that fits the data, 0.89 to 1.04, includes "no difference").
• Fully vaccinated children had about the same risk as unvaccinated children (hazard ratio 0.99, range 0.92 to 1.07).
• The results held up when the researchers adjusted for family income, mother's education, family origin, and other factors, and when they used a stricter definition of celiac disease that required a child to also be receiving gluten-free diet support (hazard ratio 1.06, range 0.98 to 1.15).

A hazard ratio near 1.0 means the two groups had roughly equal risk. The ranges above all sit close to 1.0 and cross it, which is what you'd expect when there is no real difference between the groups.

The researchers also handled a tricky detail: when a vaccine spreads through a population, unvaccinated children get some indirect protection because the virus circulates less ("herd immunity"). To keep that from muddying the comparison, they repeated the analysis after removing children born in the years right around the switch. The finding didn't change.

For parents and clinicians, the practical message is reassuring: in this large national group of Norwegian children, getting the rotavirus vaccine was not tied to a higher chance of developing celiac disease in early childhood. The vaccine's known benefit is real and separate from this question: its rollout cut rotavirus-related hospital admissions in Norway by about 76%.

A few limits are worth stating plainly. This study looked at Norwegian children and at celiac disease diagnosed before age 5, so it doesn't speak to celiac disease that shows up later in childhood or to other populations. And because children weren't randomly assigned to be vaccinated, the study describes what happened across a whole population rather than testing the vaccine as an experiment. What it can say is clear: across three-quarters of a million children, the researchers found no signal that the rotavirus vaccine raises — or lowers — the risk of early celiac disease.

The study reviewed is: Östman M, Stene LC, Tapia G, Kivelä L, Kurppa K, Størdal K, et al. "Risk of Celiac Disease Before and After Nationwide Infant Rotavirus Vaccination: A Population-Based Study." Journal of Pediatrics. 2026;290:114938. .